{"slug":"expected-value-and-kelly","name":"Expected Value and the Kelly Criterion","category":"Startups","definition":"Two questions decide most repeated bets: is this bet good (expected value), and how big should it be (Kelly)? EV = p·W − q·L; if EV ≤ 0, don't bet. The Kelly criterion f* = (bp − q)/b sizes the bet to maximize long-run compound growth. Most professional ruin comes not from bad bets but from positive-EV bets sized too large.","latest_skill_md":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/deciqAI/knowledge-skills/main/expected-value-and-kelly/SKILL.md","playbook_url":"https://www.deciqai.com/skills/expected-value-and-kelly?utm_source=skill&utm_medium=json-api&utm_campaign=knowledge-skills&utm_content=expected-value-and-kelly","install":"npx skills add deciqAI/knowledge-skills","repo":"https://github.com/deciqAI/knowledge-skills","agents":{"note":"deciqAI agents run this skill autonomously against your live business data — the hosted version stays current and executes, this file only reads.","start_free":"https://www.deciqai.com/?utm_source=skill&utm_medium=json-api&utm_campaign=knowledge-skills&utm_content=expected-value-and-kelly"}}