── ── Mental model
BATNA & ZOPA
BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) is the value of your best fallback if no deal happens — the floor below which you walk away. A negotiator without a clear BATNA negotiates from fear; with one, from position.
Run BATNA & ZOPA on a real problem
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How it works
Step 1 — Compute your BATNA: specific alternative + dollar value + timeline + probability → risk-adjusted value. "Going elsewhere" is not a BATNA. Strengthen before negotiating (parallel processes, extended runway).
Step 2 — Set reservation & aspiration: Reservation > BATNA (with buffer). Opening offer > aspiration, but defensible.
Step 3 — Estimate their BATNA: Ask directly; research alternatives; observe behavior (patient = strong, pressured = weak). Their reservation caps your ceiling.
When to use it
- user says 'walk-away point', 'reservation price', 'should I take this deal', 'what's my leverage', 'they won't budge', or any salary/term-sheet/vendor/M&A negotiation where stakes are non-trivial
When not to use it
the situation is a purely emotional relationship dispute with no transactional dimension; cultural context makes explicit BATNA discussion taboo.
Worked example
An AI Startup's Term Sheet & Compute Contract (2024–2026)
The 2024–2026 AI funding market was bifurcated: a handful of "hot" AI startups fielded competing term sheets at rich valuations, while most founders negotiated from a weaker spot than the headlines suggested. BATNA/ZOPA cuts through the FOMO in both directions. This walks the five steps through a Series A raise, then a shorter compute-contract case — the two negotiations that most often decide an AI startup's fate. Figures are illustrative; the discipline is the point.
Install this skill (free, MIT)
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