── ── Cognitive bias
10-10-10
Faced with a non-trivial decision, ask three questions: How will I feel in 10 minutes? In 10 months? In 10 years? The three horizons are spaced an order of magnitude apart to surface the systematic bias toward the immediate — hyperbolic discounting — that makes decisions under stress go wrong. Coined by Suzy Welch (2009); the 10-year horizon is operationally…
How it works
S1 — State it: Decision (specific) · Options · Time pressure · Emotional state going in.
S2 — 10 Minutes: How will I feel? What emotion is driving this answer?
S3 — 10 Months: How will I feel? What will have changed? What second-order effects begin?
When to use it
- someone is making a decision under emotional pressure and worries they'll regret it later
- someone says "I know I should do X but it feels too scary right now"
- someone is about to quit, accept an offer, end a relationship, or have a hard conversation and is stuck
- someone mentions "regret minimization," "what would future me say," or "Suzy Welch."
When not to use it
the decision has no medium- or long-term consequences (e.g., which lunch to order); the decision belongs to someone else and the user is being asked to ratify it.
Worked example
Suzy Welch, 1990s; Jeff Bezos, 1994
Suzy Welch describes the origin of 10-10-10 in her 2009 book. It was not invented in a corporate boardroom or a research lab. It came from a specific moment in 1990s Hawaii, when Welch — a working mother juggling four children, a high-profile editorial career, and constant travel — had a decision-making meltdown in front of her 6-year-old daughter, Sophia.
Install this skill (free, MIT)
npx skills add deciqAI/knowledge-skills