── ── Mental model
BATNA & ZOPA
BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) is the value of your best fallback if no deal happens — the floor below which you walk away. A negotiator without a clear BATNA negotiates from fear; with one, from position.
How it works
Step 1 — Compute your BATNA: specific alternative + dollar value + timeline + probability → risk-adjusted value. "Going elsewhere" is not a BATNA. Strengthen before negotiating (parallel processes, extended runway).
Step 2 — Set reservation & aspiration: Reservation > BATNA (with buffer). Opening offer > aspiration, but defensible.
Step 3 — Estimate their BATNA: Ask directly; research alternatives; observe behavior (patient = strong, pressured = weak). Their reservation caps your ceiling.
When to use it
- user says 'walk-away point', 'reservation price', 'should I take this deal', 'what's my leverage', 'they won't budge', or any salary/term-sheet/vendor/M&A negotiation where stakes are non-trivial
When not to use it
the situation is a purely emotional relationship dispute with no transactional dimension; cultural context makes explicit BATNA discussion taboo.
Worked example
Fisher and Ury, 1981 — The Harvard Negotiation Project
The framework's primary source is Fisher and Ury's Getting to Yes, which emerged from research at the Harvard Negotiation Project (founded 1979). Fisher had been a US negotiator and Harvard Law professor; Ury was a young anthropologist (later co-founder of the Program on Negotiation at Harvard). Their goal: distill a method of negotiation that was both ethical and effective — better than positional bargaining (each side haggling toward the middle) and better than soft accommodation (giving in to preserve the relationship).
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