── ── Industry
RIA — Client Plan Margin of Safety
The parent margin-of-safety builds a buffer so estimation error doesn't cause ruin. A retiree's plan lives or dies on sequence-of-returns risk; the margin of safety is the cash/bond buffer and withdrawal haircut that lets the plan survive an early bad market.
Run RIA — Client Plan Margin of Safety on a real problem
Bring something you're actually deciding — free, in the browser.
How it works
- Size a spending buffer (e.g. 1–3 yrs of withdrawals in cash/short bonds) so early drawdowns aren't sold at the bottom. - Haircut the withdrawal rate below the "optimistic" number; plan to the conservative case. - Stress-test against an early-crash sequence, not just average returns.
When to use it
- building a retirement/decumulation plan
- setting cash buffers/withdrawal rates
- stress-testing a plan
- client near retirement
- 'will they be okay if markets drop early?'
When not to use it
pure accumulation with long horizon and no near-term draws.
Worked example
RIA — Client Plan Margin of Safety
The parent margin-of-safety builds a buffer so estimation error doesn't cause ruin. A retiree's plan lives or dies on sequence-of-returns risk; the margin of safety is the cash/bond buffer and withdrawal haircut that lets the plan survive an early bad market.
Install this skill (free, MIT)
npx skills add deciqAI/knowledge-skillsUseful? Star the repo — stars help other builders find it.
Related mental models
The parent principal-agent analyzes misaligned incentives between an agent and the principal they serve.
The parent expected-value-and-kelly sizes repeated positive-edge bets to maximize long-run growth without ruin.
The parent second-order-thinking traces "and then what?" across time and parties.
The parent checklist turns fuzzy "did we cover everything" into a verifiable gate.