── ── Strategy
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning accepts that certain futures are genuinely unknowable and prepares for several of them rather than betting on one forecast. Pierre Wack formalized this at Shell in the early 1970s; Shell's pre-built Scenario B let it survive the 1973 oil shock while competitors were unprepared. Schwartz: "The goal is not to predict the future but to make decisions that…
How it works
Run the Scenario Matrix. Focal question first, then drivers, then the 2×2, then strategy derivation.
Stop-rule: At Step 3, if you cannot find at least one critical uncertainty that is both (a) highly impactful and (b) genuinely bi-directional, stop — run a sensitivity analysis instead.
1. State the focal strategic question. Specific: names a decision, a time horizon, and the driving uncertainty. 2. Identify key drivers. Sort into predetermined elements (background constants) and critical uncertainties (highly impactful, genuinely bi-directional). 3. Select the two most critical uncertainties. Most impactful on the focal question AND most independent of each other. Each axis has two plausible poles — not "good vs bad." 4. Build the 2×2 Scenario Matrix. Name each quadrant memorably. Write a full narrative paragraph per scenario: internally consistent, no contradictions. Quality check: does at least one scenario make the team uncomfortable? 5. Derive strategic implications. For each scenario: current strategy performance, biggest opportunities, biggest threats, most valuable capabilities. 6. Identify robust moves and contingent bets. Robust moves = act now. Contingent bets = hold until leading indicators fire. Assign 3–5 leading indicators per scenario with monitoring owner and review cadence.
When to use it
- user says 'what are the scenarios,' 'stress test our strategy,' 'what if X happens,' 'multiple futures,' 'strategic resilience,' or is making a high-stakes irreversible decision with a 3+ year horizon where a single forecast could be catastrophically wrong
When not to use it
When the decision is routine and reversible, applying a formal method costs more than it returns.
Worked example
Shell Group Planning and the 1973 Oil Crisis (1971–1973)
A documented, primary-source-citable case with no pop-figure mythology.
Install this skill (free, MIT)
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