── ── Industry
Travel Advisor — Cancellation & Refund Decision
The parent decision-tree maps sequential choices with payoffs and probabilities. Cancellation recovery is a decision tree: supplier refund vs future credit vs insurance claim vs card dispute, each with a probability of success and a net recovery.
Run Travel Advisor — Cancellation & Refund Decision on a real problem
Bring something you're actually deciding — free, in the browser.
How it works
Nodes and payoffs: - Supplier policy branch: refundable window? penalty tier? credit vs cash. - Insurance branch: is the reason a covered peril? claim probability × payout. - Card/chargeback branch: supplier default only; success probability. - Roll back expected recovery; pick the branch with best net-of-effort value; sequence claims (don't forfeit one by taking another).
When to use it
- a client needs to cancel/change
- deciding refund vs credit vs insurance claim
- comparing supplier penalties
- 'what's my best move to recover the most?'
When not to use it
fully refundable booking, no decision needed.
Worked example
Travel Advisor — Cancellation & Refund Decision
The parent decision-tree maps sequential choices with payoffs and probabilities. Cancellation recovery is a decision tree: supplier refund vs future credit vs insurance claim vs card dispute, each with a probability of success and a net recovery.
Install this skill (free, MIT)
npx skills add deciqAI/knowledge-skillsUseful? Star the repo — stars help other builders find it.
Related mental models
The parent pricing-strategy captures value by aligning price to willingness-to-pay and cost-to-serve.
The parent peak-end-rule says memory is dominated by the emotional peak and the end, not the average.
The parent customer-relationship-ladder moves a contact up rungs from stranger → advocate.
The parent scenario-planning builds several plausible futures and a response to each.